The Windsor Framework is a Win for the U.K. - and for Rishi Sunak

In what may be considered the first win of his prime ministership, Rishi Sunak has managed to renegotiate the Northern Ireland Protocol. The impact of this win should not be underestimated.

Dear Readers,

Recently and against all odds, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak managed to secure a deal with the European Union, modifying the Northern Ireland Protocol that the two parties agreed upon in 2019 as part of the U.K.’s withdrawal agreement.

The background is the special status of Northern Ireland. When the United Kingdom left the EU, free movement between the two parties ended. However, as per the 1998 Good Friday Agreement that ended the Troubles, free movement between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland had to be maintained. There can be no border checkpoints between the North and the South. The question then became how to ensure that this did not create a backdoor into the EU, of which the Republic is still part. Without border checks, U.K. exporters could at least in theory smuggle goods into the EU through the NI/ROI border and then from the Republic to the rest of the union.

The Protocol was meant to solve this conundrum.

Instead of checkpoints between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, there would be checks on goods moving to and from the North and the rest of the United Kingdom. Northern Ireland would also still have to abide by many EU regulations related to goods. This effectively created a border between NI and the rest of the U.K.

The U.K. wanted the Protocol modified almost as soon as the ink dried, and these calls only intensified over time. According to the London government, the EU has imposed far more onerous checks and bureaucracy for Northern Ireland businesses, creating administrative costs that are choking the region economically as it finds itself cut off from the EU and from the rest of the U.K. Instead of attempting to make the system run as smoothly as possible, the EU, according to many in the Tory party, set out to vindictively do everything it could do swallow Northern Ireland, perhaps in an attempt to make the North seek reunification with the South, which would be the ultimate revenge for Brexit.

This may seem paranoid, and to some extent it is. But given that the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier at the beginning of the negotiations after the referendum stated his that he aimed for the final deal to be so bad that Britain would decide to ignore the referendum result and stay, the idea is not completely without merit. The EU has a history of vindictiveness towards the U.K., not dissimilar to a heartbroken former lover.

At the same time, it is debatable whether the U.K. ever intended for the Protocol to stand as it was, or whether it agreed to it in an attempt to be able leave the EU with a withdrawal agreement (thus avoiding a ‘No deal Brexit’).

If the plan all along was to break the Protocol, clearly nobody in the British government trusted the Democratic Unionist Party with this information. The DUP, a long-time ally of the Tories, is the biggest unionist party in Northern Ireland, and have for over a year boycotted the regional executive to protest the Protocol. This boycott has forced the suspension of the regional parliament Stormont, as the rules of the Good Friday Agreement dictate that Northern Ireland be ruled by a ‘mandatory coalition’ in which both sides (unionist and nationalist) are represented.

It is possible that Rishi Sunak acted out of fear that violence could erupt in Northern Ireland if the territory’s political system remained non-functional. More likely, though, is that he acted out of a desperate need for a political win, any win, to reset the narrative and bring momentum to his troubled party.

Things came to a head with the Northern Ireland Protocol bill, through which the U.K. government intended to unilaterally scrap parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol, under the threat of retaliation from the EU. This bill, which has now been paused, spurred the EU into agreeing to negotiate. While the EU could have dared the U.K. into violating the Protocol unilaterally, it may have reasoned that implementing any serious sanctions on the U.K. would be near-impossible with the country still having so many allies within the union (mostly in Eastern Europe), and with the EU already fighting a sanctions war against Russia. In what became a game of chicken, the EU yielded first.

What is in this new deal?

The Windsor Framework, as the successor to the Northern Ireland Protocol has been dubbed, has two major changes: It creates a “green lane” for goods from Great Britain that are destined for Northern Ireland. The vast majority of checks and paperwork on these goods will be scrapped, whereas “red lane” goods that are intended or at great risk of being transported and sold in the EU will face the same checks as now.

The other major change is the “Stormont brake” that will allow the regional parliament to raise objection to any new EU rule that affects Northern Ireland and that significantly differs from U.K. law. Under the Framework, if 30 members of the Northern Ireland Assembly object to a rule, they can petition London. For reference, the unionist parties currently hold 35 seats, with the DUP holding 25 of these.

If the government agrees with the petitioners, the rule is automatically paused for a maximum of four weeks pending arbitration with the EU. If arbitration fails, London ultimately holds a veto and can block the rule in question from being implemented. The government has made clear that it will not use that veto unless a rule is being objected to by members of both the unionist and nationalist parties in Northern Ireland, though this is not formally required by the Framework. The government has also said that it will do what Stormont wants, other than in exceptional circumstances. If it holds that promise, it means Stormont will effectively enjoy veto powers over new EU rules that affect Northern Ireland. This was a development no-one expected prior to negotiations.

While some Brexit supporters have expressed misgivings, arguing the EU concessions do not go far enough, opposition has been muted. Prominent Brexiteers such as Daniel Hannan have endorsed the deal.

The Democratic Unionist Party has not yet given their final verdict, with some of its MPs endorsing the deal whereas others have reservations. In the end, it is all but certain that the DUP will support the agreement. Anything else would be a massive betrayal that the Conservative party would not soon forget. At the same time, the DUP cannot appear too enthusiastic about any agreement that leaves any checks at all or any EU rules in place in Northern Ireland, as doing so would leave the party open to be attacked by unionist hardliners such as the growing Traditional Unionist Voice party.

Will the Framework save Rishi Sunak and his Tories?

On its own, no. The Tories are down between 20-25 % in the polls, and it will take more than a Framework to turn that around.

That being said, the Framework is having an impact. In several polls since it was revealed, the gap between Tories and Labour have shrunk by 5 %. Sunak’s favorability ratings have also increased, and the race between him and Keir Starmer on the “Who do you prefer as Prime Minister?” question is much tighter.

Most importantly perhaps, what this deal has done is give the Tories their first positive news cycle since last summer. After Boris Johnson’s Partygate scandal reached the nadir that forced him to resign, everyone from the left and the right have piled on. Even Nigel Farage has talked of re-entering party politics, having sensed an opening on the right. Showing themselves able to work constructively with the EU and find compromises that everyone can be happy with is vital if the Tories are to stand any chance in the next election. The Tories traditional competitive advantage has been their competence at governing and providing stability.

For Rishi Sunak personally, this deal strengthens the image he wants to cultivate of himself as a trustworthy, capable statesman. He may not possess the charm of Tony Blair or the firebrand qualities of Boris Johnson, but he is a responsible man, and when he says he’s going to do something, he gets it done. That Sunak could deliver on his promise to renegotiate the Protocol is important, as the Tories are at this point not viewed by voters as honest or trustworthy. That the Protocol was supposed to be set in stone and that naysayers in the opposition for the longest time argued that Sunak was wasting time trying to renegotiate it only makes this win that much sweeter.

Crucially, this would turn out to be only one of two serious Tory wins these past few weeks.

Shortly after news broke of the deal, Keir Starmer announced that he had appointed Sue Gray as his next chief of staff. Gray famously, in her role as a civil servant, wrote the “partygate” report that ended up taking down Boris Johnson. While her appointment is almost certainly not a ‘reward’ for her damning report, that Starmer would appoint her and give the appearance that it just might be is a rare own goal for the risk-averse Labour leader. The timing could not be worse, and every right-winged media outlet in the U.K. has pounced on the opportunity to crucify Starmer and, between the lines, ask the question whether Sue Gray’s report exaggerated Johnson’s bad conduct.

Rishi Sunak, sensing his first momentum since becoming party leader, is now trying to keep it going. He recently announced that anyone migrating illegally to the U.K. would be barred from seeking asylum. This contradicts the European Convention on Human Rights, to which the U.K. is still bound.

Many in the Tories have sought to end the European Court of Human Rights jurisdiction in the U.K., and the border crisis may give Sunak a pretext to do so. British voters are skeptical of low-skilled immigration, and especially suspicious of migrants arriving to the U.K. across the channel from France by boat to claim asylum.

The British government, which is obligated under the ECHR to consider every application for asylum, has taken to housing these people anywhere they can find accommodation, including in hotels, while their claims are being investigated. As of right now, with the summer holidays fast approaching, upwards of 5 % of all hotel rooms in the country are occupied by asylum seekers. Despite Brexit, the U.K. government has, thanks to the ECHR, not been able to crack down on migration in the way that it wanted.

It is easy to see how this can be a winning political issue, particularly in coastal towns in the south of England where the Liberal Democrats have made headway, and among the English working class in the traditionally safe Labour constituencies in the North and Midlands that Boris Johnson won in 2019.

This also has the potential to give Keir Starmer and his Labour party a headache. If the Tories take U.K. out of the ECHR, Labour activists will demand that Starmer promise that a future Labour government rejoin. If he does not, he will further deepen the split within the Labour party and reduce enthusiasm among Labour grassroots and activists, who are already disappointed that he has officially and in no uncertain terms ruled out rejoining the EU and that he has suspended his among Labour activists very popular predecessor Jeremy Corbyn’s membership in the party. Starmer needs these people to knock on doors and turn out the vote in the next election campaign.

On the other hand, if he does promise to rejoin the ECHR, the next election campaign will revolve around his attempts to explain to British voters why he wants to give a foreign court jurisdiction over the U.K. A foreign court that prevented the U.K. from cracking down on immigration like most voters, particularly working class voters, wanted.

When history is written, this could well turn out to have been the month when the Tories finally placed its finger on the country’s pulse again, and remembered how to play the political game that has kept them in power since 2010.

If the Framework proves successful and if the Stormont executive is restored, at the same time as the crackdown successfully brings down migration levels, while inflation levels continue to drop, this just might be enough to brand Rishi Sunak the ‘Comeback kid’ and make the next election, scheduled to be held no later than January 2025, a real contest. If Ukraine were to successfully drive out Russia and end the war before the next election, that would also give his government a boost. No European country has supported Ukraine as much as the U.K. have done. Under the Tories, the U.K. began to train and supply Ukrainian troops all the way back in 2014. Those are a lot of if’s, of course, but as I have reminded everyone in the past, Keir Starmer and his Labour party have their own problems.

The fact of the matter is that 45 % of British voters voted for the Tories as late as December 2019. At the end of the day, this remains the Tories best hope: They do not need to convince the ardent unionists or left-winged student activists, they only have to win back the voters who did support them until not that long ago. The Windsor Framework is a first step towards regaining their trust. Time will tell if it will be enough.

Sincerely,
John Gustavsson, PhD